Using Achievement Test Scores to Predict Student Success In Adult Basic Education

Authors

  • Cindy James Thompson Rivers University
  • Leslee Francis-Pelton University of Victoria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56105/cjsae.v19i2.2584

Abstract

Numerous prediction models of student success/nonsuccess in Adult Basic Education (ABE) have been designed and tested. Some of these studies indicate there is a significant relationship between the academic ability of ABE participants (as measured by some assessment tool) and their success/nonsuccess. This two-year study involving 153 participants was conducted to determine if student success or nonsuccess in an ABE mathematics course could be predicted by student scores on the Canadian Achievement Test - 2nd edition (CAT/2). A logistic regression model based on CAT/2 scores achieved by the Year 1 student cohort was moderately successful at predicting success/nonsuccess in that same group of students (70%), when students with modeled success probabilities of>_ 0.5 (the "cutoff value") were predicted to eventually succeed in the mathematics course. However, when the same model was tested against students in Year 2 of the study, the percentage of students accurately predicted to succeed or not succeed was slightly lower (65%). Thus, had the modeled probabilities of success been used to limit admission into the mathematics course, a significant number of students destined to succeed in the course would have been excluded. Lowering the cutoff value would have reduced this potential error, but at the expense of allowing large numbers of "non-success" students into the course.

Résumé

De nombreux modèles prévisionnels liés à la réussite scolaire en éducation des adultes ont été mis au point et évalués. Certains d'entre eux ont fait ressortir un lien significatif entre les aptitudes des apprenants adultes (mesurées par un outil d'évaluation quelconque) et leur degré de réussite (ou de non réussite). Le but de cette recherche, qui s'est échelonnée sur deux ans et ayant impliqué 153 participants, était de voir s'il était possible de prédire la réussite ou l'échec d'un apprenant adulte à un cours de mathématique selon ses résultats à l'Épreuve canadienne de rendement pour adultes, version anglaise deuxième édition (CAT/2). Un modèle de régression logistique, élaboré en fonction des résultats de la cohorte d'apprenants de première année à l'Épreuve canadienne de rendement pour adultes, a dans une certaine mesure permis de prédire la réussite de ce même groupe d'apprenants (à 70 pourcent), stipulant que les apprenants avec un indice de probabilité de > 0,5 (la valeur limite) réussiraient éventuellement le cours de mathématiques. Toutefois les résultats ont été un peu mains probants avec les apprenants de deuxième année, puisque le taux d'exactitude des prédictions n'était que de 65 pourcent. Par conséquent, si les résultats à l'Épreuve canadienne de rendement pour adultes avaient été utilisés pour limiter l'admission au cours de mathématiques, ban nombre d'apprenants susceptibles de réussir le cours auraient été exclus. II aurait été possible de restreindre la marge d'erreur en abaissant la valeur limite, mais cela aurait eu pour effet d'augmenter le nombre d'apprenants susceptibles d'échouer le cours.

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Published

2005-11-01

How to Cite

James, C., & Francis-Pelton, L. (2005). Using Achievement Test Scores to Predict Student Success In Adult Basic Education. Canadian Journal for the Study of Adult Education, 19(2). https://doi.org/10.56105/cjsae.v19i2.2584

Issue

Vol. 19 No. 2 (2005)

Section

Articles

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